Non-strategic move down market. FIs that think of internet banking solutions as non-strategic will even more actively adopt cheapest-of-breed solutions without regard to available up-side because the price difference between the cheap solutions and the good solutions will continue to widen. Some of these FIs are in this place because they don’t have a vision for the up-side available to their institution, but some are moving into this category because they feel they are unlikely to be able to capture the available up-side in a best of breed solution (for example, because they aren’t staffed to attend to that). They’re moving down-market and are likely to shrink or be merged.

Simple things that matter will attract end users. Retail consumers will start to see internet banking features be offered that are meaningful to them (not just commodity services) and might be willing to switch FIs to get them. Such features include product offerings or discounts beyond FI rewards programs that save them meaningful amounts of money.

Online statements will continue to worth spending time on for FIs. Penetration will be most successful where the FI is up front about the benefits to the FI as well as clear about options available to the end user.

Big Four in Bill Pay continues moving toward Big Three. Price pressure will continue to erode Bill Pay pricing. Vendors will continue to battle for FIs more and more on price. Fiserv, FIS and iPay will continue to take business from ORCC unless their late 2009 solutions prove very stable and dramatically better than legacy solutions. ORCC may wind up selling and solution consolidation would be a likely outcome. Fiserv and FIS will continue to restructure and churn their acquisitions and continue to provide an opening for iPay

Social media will struggle in Online Banking. Social media will be invested in by some and will largely struggle to prove value and be adopted as regards direct ties to online banking.

Social & security components will succeed in selling the reticent. Online banking and bill pay will continue to be adopted by late adopters. Testimonials, more openly shared information on active use in the relevant community will help bring along the late adopters. Non-transactional solutions will be attractive as a safe toe-in-the-water solution (like online account summary, balance, statements, and alerts) that could warm up some of these users to a richer use of online banking downstream.